California Wildfire Losses Could Reach $5 Billion a Year by 2047

California homeowners could face much greater wildfire-related losses over the next two decades. A Terner Center for Housing Innovation study estimates that fires could produce about $5 billion in yearly damage to owner-occupied homes by 2047. That would exceed the unusually high annual losses seen in recent years by 85%, with climate change identified as the driver.

The projection covers the state broadly, but some areas could feel the impact more sharply. Parts of San Diego County and Southern California may see tens of millions of dollars in losses during a typical year under the model. Higher expected damage could also push insurance premiums upward in some cities, adding pressure to California’s existing home-insurance problems.

The report calls for stronger coordination among local governments, more state planning, improved wildfire-risk information and greater support for homes most exposed to fire. California has created protections for smoke-damaged properties, expanded rebuilding methods and funded emergency-response capacity. It also approved grants for fire-resistant roofs and other home improvements, though the report says those efforts remain smaller than the need. The model describes long-term expected losses, not a prediction that every year will bring severe fires.