Low-rate mortgages still keep many homeowners in place

Homeowners remain strongly tied to cheaper loans, limiting the number willing to move and take on today’s higher borrowing costs. In Q2 2026, 65.6% of active mortgages had an original rate under 5%, according to Realtor.com’s review of FHFA records. Loans issued between July 2019 and June 2022 represented 42.8% of the total, compared with 40.8% one quarter earlier.

Mortgages under 3% comprised 19.2% of the pool, while 29.9% were in the 3%-to-4% range. An additional 16.5% fell between 4% and 5%. By comparison, 12% carried rates from 5% to 6%, and 22.5% were at least 6%. Some owners are gradually leaving older loans behind as they relocate, finish repayment or respond to family and employment changes.

Realtor.com modeled how the loan mix could shift if borrowing rates remain above 6%. By mid-2027, mortgages priced at 6% or more could account for 27% to 28.5% of the market. The projection assumes 3.1 million new purchase mortgages, all at 6% or higher, with no refinancing. Even that transition would mainly reflect old loans being replaced or diluted, rather than a broad pickup in housing activity.